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A Test in Not-So-Hard Choices First

May 7th, 2009 . by economistmom

OK, so it’s just a half of one percent of the $3.4 trillion budget, but the $17 billion in “terminations, reductions, and savings” proposed by the Obama Administration today still represents smarter governing, in that the Administration weighed costs against benefits, recommending cuts in those programs that didn’t look so worthwhile from that net benefit perspective.  And unlike the Bush Administration’s similarly small list of proposed cuts (totaling $34 billion in last year’s budget), the Obama Administration’s list includes eliminating some low-merit tax expenditures (specifically, some tax preferences for the oil and gas industry) and not just direct spending.

So these are low net-benefit cuts that don’t yield a whole lot of savings.  Yet budget policy experts don’t seem very optimistic that Congress will go along with even these cuts:

Obama’s list of proposed cuts is less ambitious than the hit list former president George W. Bush produced last year, which targeted 151 programs for $34 billion in savings. Like most of the cuts Bush sought, congressional sources and independent budget analysts predict, Obama’s also are likely to prove a tough sell.

“Even if you got all of those things, it would be saving pennies, not dollars. And you’re not going to begin to get all of them,” said Isabel Sawhill, a Brookings Institution economist who waged her own battles with Congress as a senior official in the Clinton White House budget office. “This is a good government exercise without much prospect of putting a significant dent in spending.”…

[T]he more likely outcome, budget analysts said, is that few to none of the programs targeted by Obama will be terminated. Presidents from both parties have routinely rolled out long lists of spending cuts — and lawmakers from both parties routinely ignore them.

“You can go through the budget line by line, but there’s no line that says ‘waste, fraud and abuse,’” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the nonprofit Concord Coalition, which promotes deficit reduction. “What some people think is waste, other people think is a vital government service.”

If Congress is not willing to support even these cuts–given the demonstrated low net-benefit of these small programs and given the President’s recommendation/blessing on these cuts–then how are they supposed to go along with the really tough choices, to scale back on the major programs and the tax cuts that they love even more (and that cost far, far more)?  It’s an early and easier test in fiscal responsibility that I’m still afraid our government might fail.

Maybe we ought to consider this policy tactic:  renaming as many of our federal programs as we can the “waste, fraud and abuse” program.  ;)

One Response to “A Test in Not-So-Hard Choices First”

  1. comment number 1 by: Jim Glass

    Washington Post:

    Democrats Assail Obama’s Hit List

    President Obama’s modest proposal to slice $17 billion from 121 government programs quickly ran into a buzz saw of opposition on Capitol Hill yesterday, as an array of Democratic lawmakers vowed to fight White House efforts to deprive their favorite initiatives of federal funds.

    [example, example, example]

    Rep. Maurice D. Hinchey (D-N.Y.) vowed to force the White House to accept delivery of a new presidential helicopter Obama says he doesn’t need and doesn’t want.

    The helicopter program, which cost $835 million this year, supports 800 jobs in Hinchey’s district. “I do think there’s a good chance we can save it,” he said.

    [etc.]

    Incentives, incentives, incentives.

    Hinchey and his fellow Democrats have very powerful incentives not to cut a penny of this spending. (Just exactly as the Republicans did when they were running the budget.)

    What incentive have you and other budget watchers given them to cut that spending?

    Until you give them that you have a hopeless cause.

    They do not see themselves as running a charity for the future through which they sacrifice jobs in their districts — and their own political jobs, not least — today, for the sake of “a better world tomorrow”.

    Hand wringing about how they won’t do the “right thing” and make “tough decisions” is pointless — their decisions are NOT tough, they are easy, all the incentives they face are one way!

    Create some incentives for them to decide the other way, and make their decisions tough, or your battle is lost before it is started and all your concern is a wasted.

    That should be the job for budget reformers: create practical political incentives that elected politicians will feel in favor of repsonsible and efficient long-term budgeting.

    Absent that, the whole exercise of lamenting fiscal responsibility is futile.